Media Release
July 16 2010
New study reveals Australians may vote on face value
New
research that has predicted election results based on little more than a
candidate’s photo suggests that voter’s decisions may be skin deep.
A study conducted by the
Ehrenberg-Bass Institute at the
University of South Australia has successfully predicted election
results by simply asking people to judge mocked up election posters.
The research was conducted prior to the 2008 NSW and Victorian
by-elections with 178 Adelaide residents being asked to look at a
political poster and make judgements about the candidate’s competency,
trustworthiness, likeability and attractiveness.
Despite not knowing anything about the policies, personality or
background of the NSW candidates, the SA survey participant results were
an extraordinary match.
In 94 per cent of cases the candidate who received a more popular score
in the visual test actually went on to win the real election by popular
vote.
Katherine Anderson, a Research Associate at the Ehrenberg-Bass
Institute who worked on the study said that the accuracy of selections
was surprising, considering that participants knew next to nothing about
the candidates.
“Survey participants were from South Australia so we can assume they
knew nothing about the NSW and Victorian candidates other than what was
on the poster we showed them - the candidate’s photo, name and party,”
she said.
“The results suggest that people may judge a book by its cover when
voting, selecting candidates based on attributes perceived from their
physical appearance.”
Participants were shown digital images of political posters on an iPhone,
with nearly 7000 judgements collected from Adelaide residents, which
were later compared to the actual results from the election.
The best factor for predicting the outcome was perceived ‘competency’,
with 63 per cent of candidates whose poster received a higher score for
‘looks competent’ than their opponent going on to win more votes in the
election.
Similar research used to predict results in the US presidential
primaries, congressional and gubernatorial races also found ‘competency’
to be the best trait for predicting success in the political arena.
Media contact
- Kelly Stone office (08) 8302 0963 mobile 0417 861 832 email kelly.stone@unisa.edu.au
Contact for interview
- Katherine Anderson office (08) 8302 7249 mobile 0427 977 217 email katherine.anderson@unisa.edu.au